Scalatris
ENGINEERED TO ELEVATE ISSUE #18
THE FACTORY FORWARD · 29 SEPTEMBER 2026 · 6 MIN READ, DESIGNED TO RUN IN 30
The stock that hasn't moved since last Diwali
WHAT'S INSIDE THIS WEEK
▸ THE ONE NUMBER The ₹ in your stores that hasn't left in 180 days.
▸ THE STILL-STOCK CHECK One export, one sheet, thirty minutes.
▸ THIS WEEK'S NUMBER 11½ years, and why it lands on suppliers.
I promised you Siemens and P&G this week. They move to next Tuesday, because September's factory survey printed something to act on first.
Your stores are full and the bank limit is tight. Which of that stock hasn't moved since last Diwali? If the honest answer is "we'd have to check", this issue is the check.
WHY THIS WEEK
In September, India's manufacturers built finished-goods stock at the fastest pace in eleven and a half years (HSBC flash PMI). Car dealers are carrying 38 to 40 days of stock into the festive season.
Some of that is deliberate. HSBC says firms are building buffers against Middle East uncertainty. But a buffer you chose and stock nobody chose look identical on a balance sheet. Only one of them is doing a job.
ONE FIELD NOTE
ILLUSTRATIVE. A composite, not a client. The numbers below show the arithmetic, not a result anyone achieved. Your plant will have different figures.
WHAT HAPPENED
A tier-2 machining plant near Chakan, about ₹5 crore of stock. The stores report ages every item by the date it was received. On that report, almost nothing looks old.
Re-sort the same list by the date each item last left the stores (last issue to the line, last dispatch) and 18% of the stock value has not moved in over 180 days.
WHY IT WORKED
Receipt-date ageing hides the worst stock. An item on a reorder level gets topped up every few months, so its latest receipt always looks fresh, even when nothing has been issued from it since March. Sort by last movement and those items fall straight to the bottom.
WHAT IT COSTS YOU TO SKIP THIS
Eighteen per cent of ₹5 crore is ₹90 lakh. If the plant funds its stock on a cash-credit line at 11% a year, that ₹90 lakh costs about ₹82,500 a month in interest alone, before storage, handling, damage or the day it goes obsolete.
That is the sentence for Monday's review. Not "inventory is high", but "₹90 lakh hasn't moved in six months and it costs us ₹82,500 a month".
WHAT WE KNOW
Manufacturers' finished-goods inventories rose at an 11½-year pace in September (HSBC flash PMI). Vector Consulting Group estimates ₹98,000 crore is locked in inventory across India's auto-component industry.
OUR READING
A buffer turns into dead stock quietly, one reorder at a time, and receipt-date ageing will not show it. When showrooms stay full, the pressure tends to move up the chain, to the plants that supply the plants.
WHAT WE DO NOT KNOW
How much of your stock is still. The ₹98,000 crore estimate comes from 21 industry executives, not an audit, and says nothing about any single plant.
FACTORY FORWARD FIELD TOOL
The Still-Stock Check
30 minutes · one stock export · one sheet · one ₹ number
STEP 1
Export item code, description, quantity, unit cost, and the date each item last left the stores. Only have receipt dates? Use them, and the prompt will flag it.
STEP 2
Run the prompt below in a company-approved AI assistant. Remove customer names.
STEP 3
Paste the export into the sheet for the ₹ total and the monthly cost.
ONE PROMPT TO TRY
A prompt for your AI assistant. It sorts and flags. It decides nothing.
YOUR DATA
Below is my stock list: item code, description, quantity on hand, unit cost in ₹, and the date each item last left the stores. [PASTE]
TASK 1
Calculate days since each item last moved, as of [TODAY'S DATE]. Group the items into 0–90, 91–180, 181–365 and over 365 days. Give me the total ₹ value in each group.
TASK 2
List the 15 items with the highest ₹ value that have not moved in over 180 days.
TASK 3
For each of those 15, label it CHECK FIRST if the description suggests an insurance spare, customer-owned or consigned stock, or safety stock. Otherwise label it REVIEW. Use CHECK FIRST whenever you are not sure.
RULES
Do not recommend scrapping, selling or writing off anything. If a date is missing, say so. Do not guess it. If only receipt dates are given, say so at the top of your answer.
The one line that does the heavy lifting: "the date each item last left the stores". Change that one phrase to "the date it came in" and the report will tell you everything is fine.
You check every line. The model cannot see which spare keeps your press running.
THE ONE CLICK
The Still-Stock Check, a Google Sheet
Make a copy, paste your export from row 20, and type your own interest rate. It returns four age buckets, the ₹ that hasn't moved in 180 days, and what that costs you every month. What you paste stays in your copy.
THIS WEEK'S NUMBER
11½ years
That is how long it has been since India's manufacturers built finished-goods stock as fast as they did this September. Output and orders are up too, so much of it may sell. Full warehouses are exactly where stock that never will hides best.
YOUR ONE MOVE THIS WEEK
One export. One sheet. One number at the top.
Thirty minutes with whoever runs the stores and whoever runs purchase.
What good looks like: one ₹ figure for stock that has not moved in 180 days, and a short list marked CHECK FIRST or REVIEW. You are not deciding anything yet. You are finding out what you have. If the number is small, good. Write it down.
ONE QUESTION
Reply with one number: what share of your stock value has not moved in 180 days?
Just the percentage. No names, no company. I will share the spread, anonymised, if enough of you reply.
COMING NEXT TUESDAY
Siemens and P&G are taking an AI inspection system across P&G's plants worldwide, with striking numbers attached. Every one of them is a company claim. Next week: what actually transfers from a first plant to a second, and which of those numbers a buyer should push on.
P.S. Run the Still-Stock Check on the first Monday of every month. The number itself matters less than which way it moves. Up two months in a row is your early warning.
Until next Tuesday,
Sachin
Founder, Scalatris LLP · scalatris.com
FORWARD THIS
Know a plant head whose stores are fuller than their order book? Forward this to them. That is the whole ask.
SOURCES
1. HSBC Flash India PMI (S&P Global), September 2026, as reported by KNN India, 23 September 2026: finished-goods inventories recorded their "strongest expansion in 11-and-a-half years".
2. FADA August 2026 retail data, as reported by Zee Business, 22 September 2026: passenger-vehicle dealer inventory "around 38-40 days".
3. Vector Consulting Group, "The Broken Flywheel", launched at ACMA's 66th Annual Session, as reported by PTI/Moneycontrol, 5 September 2026: "around Rs 98,000 crore locked in inventory". Sample of 21 senior industry executives.